Sportsball Stats

Value

Gameweek 1, MCI v BOU

Stakes: 1u under $2.50, 0.5u to $10.00, 0.25u above.

PriceBetsWonStakedReturnedP&LROI
Under $2.50212.00u2.37u+0.37u+18.5%
$2.50 - $10.00
Over $10.00
All212.00u2.37u+0.37u+18.5%
Voiddid not start4

Player props

6 bets beat the player's own record. Measured on 154 of 516 priced: a bet needs 5 hits from at least 5 appearances, at 10% or better.

SortEdgePriceHit rateKick-off

PlayerMarketBetBestBookLast 60RateEdgeResultMatch
MCIJeremy DokuShots on targetU 0.52.10bet36542/6070%+20.7%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidMCIvBOU
MCIPhil FodenShots on targetU 0.52.37bet36538/6063%+20.1%won0MCIvBOU
MCIRayan CherkiShots on targetU 0.52.37bet36524/3667%+19.3%void · sub, the player came off the bench, so the bet was voidMCIvBOU
TOTOmar MarmoushShots on targetU 1.51.57bet36532/3982%+5.8%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidMCIvBOU
BOUDavid BrooksShots on targetU 0.51.67bet36544/6073%+1.7%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidMCIvBOU
BOUEvanilsonShotsO 1.51.82Unibet41/6068%+1.5%lost0MCIvBOU

Team markets

SelectionMarketLineBestBookBooksMarketEVMatch
UnderTotal corners9.52.60Ladbrokes8+0.1%MCIvBOU

Prices are the last we hold, not the price at kick-off. A settled round is scored against what the players actually did, but the odds beside it were collected before the whistle and may have moved after. One round is a scoreboard, not a record.

Nothing here knows whether he is starting. Line-ups are published shortly before kick-off, and a player who does not start has his bet voided rather than lost — which is how a settled round is scored here.

The rate is what happened over a player's last 60 appearances; the edge is measured against the cautious end of it, because two goals in sixty games is not a 3% chance, it is an unknown chance that happened twice. An Under is measured from the other end of the same interval, never as the leftovers of an Over. MarketEV compares a team price to the devigged median of at least 3 books, which is a different yardstick from a player's own record and is why the two are different tables.