Sportsball Stats

Value

Gameweek 2, AVL v ARS

Stakes: 1u under $2.50, 0.5u to $10.00, 0.25u above.

PriceBetsWonStakedReturnedP&LROI
Under $2.50101.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
$2.50 - $10.00100.50u0.00u-0.50u-100.0%
Over $10.00100.25u0.00u-0.25u-100.0%
All301.75u0.00u-1.75u-100.0%
Voiddid not start6

Player props

9 bets beat the player's own record. Measured on 131 of 610 priced: a bet needs 5 hits from at least 5 appearances, at 10% or better.

SortEdgePriceHit rateKick-off

PlayerMarketBetBestBookLast 60RateEdgeResultMatch
ARSGabriel JesusShotsO 3.526.00PointsBet9/6015%+110.5%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidAVLvARS
ARSGabriel JesusShotsO 2.58.50PointsBet17/6028%+57.3%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidAVLvARS
AVLNicolas JacksonShots on targetO 1.56.50bet36519/6032%+38.5%lost0AVLvARS
AVLAlejandro GarnachoShotsO 2.55.50bet36519/6032%+17.2%void · sub, the player came off the bench, so the bet was voidAVLvARS
ARSGabriel JesusShots on targetO 0.53.00PointsBet30/6050%+13.2%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidAVLvARS
AVLNicolas JacksonShots on targetO 0.52.15Unibet38/6063%+9.0%lost0AVLvARS
AVLAlejandro GarnachoShotsO 3.513.00bet3659/6015%+5.3%void · sub, the player came off the bench, so the bet was voidAVLvARS
ARSGabriel JesusShots on targetO 1.515.00PointsBet8/6013%+3.7%void, the player took no part, so the bet was voidAVLvARS
AVLNicolas JacksonAssistsO 0.511.00Ladbrokes10/6017%+2.4%lost0AVLvARS

Team markets

SelectionMarketLineBestBookBooksMarketEVMatch
OverTotal cards2.51.42Betr5+2.0%AVLvARS
OverTotal goals3.53.20bet3659+1.9%AVLvARS
UnderTotal cards3.52.10Ladbrokes8+0.6%AVLvARS

Prices are the last we hold, not the price at kick-off. A settled round is scored against what the players actually did, but the odds beside it were collected before the whistle and may have moved after. One round is a scoreboard, not a record.

Nothing here knows whether he is starting. Line-ups are published shortly before kick-off, and a player who does not start has his bet voided rather than lost — which is how a settled round is scored here.

The rate is what happened over a player's last 60 appearances; the edge is measured against the cautious end of it, because two goals in sixty games is not a 3% chance, it is an unknown chance that happened twice. An Under is measured from the other end of the same interval, never as the leftovers of an Over. MarketEV compares a team price to the devigged median of at least 3 books, which is a different yardstick from a player's own record and is why the two are different tables.